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RTE Provisional report 2006 ? 2015

Source: RTE 06/06/2003

RTE publishes its forecasts concerning the balance between demand and supply of electricity in both the medium and long term, and an assessment of new production capacity requirements.

As part of the responsibilities assigned to it by the law of 10th February 2000, RTE has drawn up a provisional report on predicted developments in the structure of electricity demand and supply for 2006, 2010 and 2015.
Simulations have shown that without new production installations, there is a growing risk that power supply could fail at peak consumption times in winter.
This provisional report may assist the Public Authorities in drawing Multiannual Production Investment Programmes (PPI).

Carried out at the request of the Ministry for Industry, the report involves forecasting domestic electricity consumption and exchanges between France and other countries on the one hand, and comparing these forecasts with known development plans for production facilities on the other hand.
On this basis, RTE evaluates the new production capacities required at various times in order to maintain security of supply at a satisfactory level.

In all the scenarios considered by RTE, simulations show that there is an increasing risk of an imbalance occurring between electricity demand and supply at peak times in winter, i.e. where supply is unable to satisfy demand. The risk of such a shortfall should not exceed 10%. However, according to the security criteria adopted for the purpose of this exercise, the risk would in fact stand at 3% by 2006, 22% by 2010 and 87% by 2015.

This level of security can only be guaranteed if by 2010, sufficient resources are implemented to allow an increase in supply and a reduction in demand, for a guaranteed volume of around 3GW.

For the period 2010 to 2015, it will be necessary to continue developing the various solutions affecting demand and supply, for a guaranteed annual volume of 1GW, to cover growth in consumption and stoppages at older production installations.

The level of domestic consumption could be reduced by intensifying efforts in the field of energy efficiency and control over demand for electricity.

However, the main long term response to the risk of an imbalance between demand and supply of electricity involves developing new production capacities.

The Public Authorities may, in accordance with the law, draw on this study for the purposes of defining quantitative objectives for Multiannual Production Investment Programmes (PPI).

Consult our new section "Life of the Power system / Generation Adequacy Report 2006-2015".